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WebFed Should Hike “in the Near Term” if CPI & PPI this Week Are “Hot”: Fed’s Waller. So at the July Meeting? Treasury Yields Jump
2+ hour, 35+ min ago (812+ words) Fed Governor Christopher Waller is getting nervous about inflation and doesn’t want the Fed to make the 2021 mistake again of waiting too long before hiking policy interest rates, and if the core components of the CPI report on Tuesday and…...
US Government Sold $743 Billion of Treasury Securities this Week, 30-Year Yield at 5.06% on Inflation, Lax Fed, Supply Fears
2+ day, 21+ hour ago (1206+ words) The 1-year T-bill sold at an investment rate of 4.032% at the auction on Tuesday. In the secondary market, the 1-year yield then edged up to 4.06% and closed on Friday at 4.06%, the highest since July 30, 2025, three rate cuts ago. The 1-year…...
AI Dominated the Fed’s Meeting as Driver of “Persistent Inflationary Pressures” & Demand Growth
5+ day, 56+ min ago (1026+ words) “AI” was mentioned 21 times in the minutes of the FOMC meeting on June 16-17, released today – up from 8 mentions in the minutes of the prior FOMC meeting in April – in these combinations: “Some participants commented on the possibility that AI could,…...
QT plus Rate Hikes: ECB Sheds €149 billion of QE Assets in Q2, -52% since mid-2022, Marks Gold Down by €160 Billion
5+ day, 6+ hour ago (854+ words) The ECB shed €149 billion in Q2 of its bonds and loans that make up its QE assets, according to its quarter-end balance sheet released today. Since the peak of those QE assets in mid-2022, the ECB has now shed €3.70 trillion ($4.22 trillion),…...
Six-Month Treasury Yield Rises to 4%: Bond Market Tells the Fed to Get on with the Rate Hikes
1+ week, 1+ day ago (938+ words) The government sold $84 billion of 6-month Treasury bills at an “Investment Rate” of 3.97% at the Treasury auction this week, up from 3.80% at the auction two weeks ago. In the secondary market, over those two weeks, the 6-month Treasury yield also…...
QT instead of Rate Hikes to Put a Floor under Plunging Yen: Bank of Japan Sheds 15.6% of its Massive Assets
1+ week, 3+ day ago (910+ words) The Bank of Japan started quantitative tightening late in the game, and only reluctantly, after the yen had plunged against other currencies and couldn’t find a bottom. But since the BOJ started QT in late 2024, it has proceeded at a…...
Unwinding the “Lock-in Effect” Suddenly Stalls as Homeowners Stopped Paying Off Below-3% Mortgages
1+ week, 5+ day ago (974+ words) The share of 3% to 3.99% mortgages edged down by just 20 basis points in Q1 from Q4, the smallest quarter-to-quarter decline since their share started to decline in 2022, to a share of 30.4% of all mortgages (blue), according to data by the Federal Housing Finance…...
Yen Craters to 4-Decade Low, JGB Yields at 3-Decade Highs: Monetary Policy Mess Comes Home to Roost
1+ week, 5+ day ago (945+ words) The yen has declined to a new four-decade low against the US dollar, to ¥162.8 for $1 USD, not seen since 1986, amid speculation that the Ministry of Finance would step in again by selling dollars and buying yen, plowing even more of…...
Inflation & Nominal Economic Growth to the Rescue: The US Government’s Ugly Fiscal Mess
1+ week, 6+ day ago (1047+ words) And the government’s solution to the mess, supported by the Fed, has been to “let it run hot”: higher nominal economic growth and higher inflation – instead of fiscal responses. Interest payments by the federal government on its gargantuan Treasury debt…...
Inflation in “Core Services” Surges, plus AI’s Impact on Electricity & Goods: Inflation beyond Gasoline
2+ week, 4+ day ago (600+ words) So the core PCE price index – which excludes energy and food, and thereby excludes the spike in gasoline prices – rose by 0.32% in May from April (3.86% annualized, blue in the chart below). The six-month core PCE price index, which shows the…...