News
PCE Inflation (2.9%, 3.0%) and GDP Inflation (3.7%) Got Hotter, but CPI Inflation (2.4%) Cooled. Why? The Fed Needs to Pay Serious Attention
2+ hour, 13+ min ago (1019+ words) The core PCE Price index, which excludes food and energy components, accelerated to +3.0% year-over-year in December, the worst since April 2024 (blue in the chart). It also started accelerating in April. On a monthly basis, it also jumped by 0.36% (4.4% annualized). The…...
Hot Inflation & Plunge in Federal Government Spending Slam Real GDP. But Trade Deficit Least Bad in 2 Years
11+ hour, 32+ min ago (650+ words) Gross Domestic Product, the broadest measure of spending and investment in the economy, grew by an annual rate of 1.4% in Q4, adjusted for inflation (real" GDP), after the 4.4% growth in Q3, and 3.8% growth in Q2, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis today....
US Government Sold $701 Billion of Treasury Securities this Week. As Deficits Balloon, Bond Math Is Relentlessly Brutal
6+ day, 6+ hour ago (922+ words) The US government sold $701 billion of Treasury securities this week, spread over nine auctions, including 10-year Treasury notes and 30-year Treasury bonds. Of these auction sales, $160 billion were notes and bonds. The yield at the 10-year Treasury auction (4.177%) was a…...
Services Inflation Spikes in January, but Bad-Joke OER CPI Pushes Down on Year-over-Year CPI. OER is Huge and Bad
1+ week, 11+ hour ago (1856+ words) The Consumer Price index for core services jumped in January by the most in a year, seasonally adjusted. Core services dominate the Consumer Price Index and include many of the essentials that consumers cannot do without, such as housing, healthcare,…...
Growth of Nonfarm Jobs in 2024 and 2025 Much Weaker than Previously Reported: The Annual Benchmark Revisions
1+ week, 2+ day ago (1075+ words) The preliminary annual benchmark revisions of nonfarm payrolls were initially announced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in September as a lumpsum figure (discussed here), but it was not calculated into the monthly nonfarm employment figures at the time. Today,…...
ADP Employment Report Massively Revised to 2010 with Huge Erratic Differences in Month-to-Month Job Creation & Losses
2+ week, 2+ day ago (808+ words) The ADP National Employment Report data, released today by payroll processor ADP, was massively revised going back to 2010, now showing erratic and massive month-to-month job gains and losses going back to 2010 that are completely different than the data for the…...
Office CMBS Delinquency Rate Spikes to Record 12.3%, Much Worse than Financial Crisis Meltdown Peak
2+ week, 3+ day ago (1124+ words) The delinquency rate of office mortgages that have been securitized into commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) spiked by over a percentage point in January to 12.3%, once again the worst ever, and 1.6 percentage point above the worst moments of the Financial Crisis,…...
US Government Sold $766 Billion of Treasuries this Week. Yield Curve Steepened as 30-Year Treasury Yield Rose to 4.87%
2+ week, 6+ day ago (912+ words) The government sold $766 billion in Treasury securities this week, in 10 auctions, including six Treasury bill auctions and four Treasury note auctions. The T-bill maturities ranged from 6 weeks to 26 weeks this week, totaling $538 billion. Every month, the Treasury Department is now…...
Producer Price Index Jumps on Disconcerting Spike in Services PPI. Food & Energy Prices Fall
3+ week, 12+ hour ago (524+ words) But the services PPI spiked, and services are not tariffed, and they dominate the US economy. The services PPI weighs 68% of the overall PPI. And this big increase is bad news for inflation. The overall PPI Final Demand jumped in…...
Fed Refuses to Cut, Shifts Hawkish in the Statement, with Two Dissenters
3+ week, 2+ day ago (1877+ words) The FOMC voted today to leave the Fed's five policy rates unchanged, as widely telegraphed, despite enormous pressure by Trump to cut by a lot, after three rate cuts in a row in 2025 of 75 basis points combined, and after cutting…...