News
Era of "Powell Was Dovish" Is Over: Warsh's Five Taskforces
2+ hour, 46+ min ago (460+ words) The FOMC statement " short, crisp, and denuded of any kind of "forward guidance" " showed the way. And Fed Chair Warsh hammered it home during the press conference (my analysis of the statement and some of Warsh's comments here). Forward guidance…...
Regime Change" at the Fed: Fed Chair Warsh Makes the First Moves
1+ day, 6+ hour ago (666+ words) Kevin Warsh presided over his first FOMC meeting as Fed chair " participants voted unanimously to keep policy rates remained unchanged at 3. 5%-3. 75% " but already there was the beginning of "regime change." Last year, Warsh had argued that rate cuts were needed....
US Government Sold $646 billion of Treasury Securities this Week. 2nd Wave of Inflation Approaches 10-Year Treasury Yield
5+ day, 2+ hour ago (1215+ words) This was also the week two big inflation reports were released, showing that consumer price inflation had accelerated to 4. 25% in May, and that producer price inflation had accelerated to 6. 46%, which, along with another Iran-deal announcement on Thursday, created some special…...
Money-Market Funds & CDs: Americans and their Piles of Interest-Earning Cash as "Real" Yields Turn Negative
6+ day, 4+ hour ago (840+ words) These MMF balances include retail MMFs that households bought from their broker or bank, and institutional MMFs that households bought indirectly through their employers, trustees, and fiduciaries " such as in their 401(k) plans. MMFs are short-term liquid ultra-low-risk investments, a form…...
Producer Price Inflation beyond Energy: 6-Month Services PPI, "Core" Goods PPI & "Core" PPI Blow by 6%, Worst since 2022
1+ week, 7+ hour ago (512+ words) The Producer Price Index final demand (PPI), which tracks inflation in prices that companies pay each other, spiked by 1. 06% in May from April (+13. 4% annualized), seasonally adjusted, for the second month in a row, and both of these month-to-month spikes back-to-back…...
CPI Inflation 4. 25%, Blows by 2-Year Treasury Yield, Closes in on 10-Year Treasury, Driven by "Supercore" Services, Gasoline, Electricity
1+ week, 1+ day ago (1097+ words) The all-items CPI jumped by 0. 47% seasonally adjusted in May from April (+5. 6% annualized), on top of the two majestic spikes in the prior two months (blue line in the chart). Year-over-year, the all-items CPI jumped by 4. 25%, the worst inflation reading since…...
There's Trouble Brewing in the Treasury Market
1+ week, 5+ day ago (591+ words) The 2-year Treasury yield jumped by 12 basis points on Friday, to 4. 17%, the highest since February 2025, when it was on the way down. Back then, it was anticipating more rate cuts, which came in the fall that year, three of them....
US Government Sold $742 billion of Treasury Securities last Week. T-bill Yields now Below Surging Inflation. Bond Market Bets on Rate Hikes
2+ week, 4+ day ago (937+ words) The US government sold $742 billion of Treasury securities last week, spread over 10 auctions. Of these auction sales, $504 billion were Treasury bills, with maturities from 4 weeks to 26 weeks, most or all of them to replace maturing T-bills, and $238 billion were notes…...
PCE Inflation Surges Further Away from Fed's Target, now Nearly Double the Fed's Target, and 5+ Years above Target
3+ week, 7+ hour ago (1434+ words) The all-items PCE price index jumped by 0. 40% in April from March (+4. 9% annualized), on top of the 0. 66% spike (8. 3% annualized) in the prior month, which had been the worst spike since mid-2022 (blue line in the chart below). Year-over-year, the PCE price index…...
10-Year TIPS v. 10-Year Treasury Securities: Bond Market Has Long Been Delusional about Actual CPI Inflation
3+ week, 4+ day ago (739+ words) The US government sold $19 billion of 10-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) on Thursday at a yield of 2. 169%. The 10-year TIPS auctions occur every other month, six auctions per year. In secondary market trading, the 10-year TIPS yield ended on…...