1+ hour, 12+ min ago   (415+ words) According to A Statistical Revamp Is About To Lower Inflation by The Wall Street Journal, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is reformulating its Core PCE calculation. The markets seem to focus on CPI as its inflation gauge, while the…...

1+ week, 2+ day ago   (822+ words) Every time interest rates rise, the “bond bears” flood the media with commentary suggesting US Treasuries are no longer a “safe asset.” Between June 26 and July 23, the long bond repriced up 30 basis points (bps). The five-year moved 34 bps, and the…...

2+ week, 2+ day ago   (586+ words) The national deficit debate usually focuses on entitlement and defense spending. While they have merit, they miss the single largest driver of America’s deteriorating fiscal picture. After the pandemic-related deficits, the cost of borrowing itself, not spending, has been the…...

2+ week, 5+ day ago   (395+ words) The doom feed says home affordability locked a generation out. The math on the payment you actually write says something the headlines won’t. Here are the “facts” that the media tells you about home affordability. Let’s start with a recent…...

3+ week, 1+ hour ago   (1533+ words) A sailor who fixates on the barometer will rarely leave port. A sailor who never checks it will eventually get caught in a storm. It’s easy for most investors to fall into one of those two modes, either warning that…...

3+ week, 1+ day ago   (563+ words) Consider the graph below, showing that the KOSPI has grossly outperformed the Nasdaq over the last three years. Incredibly, most of the KOSPI gains have occurred over the last year. Since the beginning of 2026 alone, the index has surged more…...

3+ week, 6+ day ago   (676+ words) Given that both indicators are currently flashing red, we explore how they can serve as important warnings of pending financial market and economic turbulence, but also as deceptive omens. To help appreciate where the yield curve stands today and how…...

4+ week, 1+ day ago   (190+ words) Yesterday, we covered Kevin Warsh using his first turn at the ECB’s Sintra forum to bury forward guidance, Forward Guidance: R.I.P, leaving markets to price policy on their own. Today, watch a quieter tell that says money is already…...

4+ week, 2+ day ago   (1810+ words) I want to take these apart in order. However, before that, let’s discuss a little background. However, here is the mechanism that many people get wrong. They assume margin debt drives prices higher, that borrowed money is the fuel under…...

1+ mon, 6+ day ago   (755+ words) A couple of weeks ago, I showed Adam Taggart the following chart of record retail levels of household cash as a percentage of total financial assets. This chart is hard to square with the financial media narratives. So which is…...