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News
Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole Speech Puts Bond Yields on Notice
2+ hour, 59+ min ago (816+ words) Daily analysis of liquidity, volatility, and market positioning — read by thousands every trading day. We are already seeing the term premium rise, which is the bond market’s way of asking for greater compensation to hold US debt. At just 82 bps,…...
Fed Meeting Sparks Yield Curve Steepening as S&P 500 Enters Danger Zone
3+ week, 3+ day ago (402+ words) Navigating The Market · By Michael Kramer Independent macro and options research, published every trading day. Daily written analysis covering gamma exposure, dealer flows, key levels, and the macro drivers moving markets. Includes full video access. The interesting takeaway from today’s…...
Fed Rate Hikes Could Tighten Financial Conditions and Pressure Markets
4+ week, 23+ hour ago (443+ words) Daily Market Analysis By Michael Kramer The granular options-positioning, individual-name setups, and exact levels live in the paid daily member commentaries. This is the free weekly takeaway. The Fed meets Wednesday, and Fed funds futures and overnight index swaps expect…...
S&P 500 Falls as Credit Spreads Widen and Real Yields Surge
4+ week, 2+ day ago (424+ words) Daily Market Analysis By Michael Kramer Navigating The Market · By Michael Kramer Independent macro and options research, published every trading day. Daily written analysis covering gamma exposure, dealer flows, key levels, and the macro drivers moving markets. Includes full video…...
Treasury Liquidity Drain Signals Higher Market Volatility
1+ mon, 2+ day ago (479+ words) Daily Market Analysis By Michael Kramer Navigating The Market · By Michael Kramer Independent macro and options research, published every trading day. Daily written analysis covering gamma exposure, dealer flows, key levels, and the macro drivers moving markets. Includes full video…...
Higher Oil and Gasoline Prices May Reignite Inflation
1+ mon, 1+ week ago (397+ words) Daily Market Analysis By Michael Kramer To no surprise, the June PPI reading also came in below expectations. The problem with both the CPI and PPI reports is that gasoline prices are rising, so the June CPI and PPI readings…...
Treasury Bill Issuance Returns as Markets Face a Liquidity Test
1+ mon, 2+ week ago (353+ words) Daily Market Analysis By Michael Kramer By Michael Kramer, Mott Capital Management The granular options-positioning, individual-name setups, and exact levels live in the paid daily member commentaries. This is the free weekly takeaway. The reason we care so much about…...
Markets Enter a Potentially Volatile Summer Period Starting This Week
1+ mon, 3+ week ago (605+ words) Daily Market Analysis By Michael Kramer Stocks finished essentially flat again on Friday, marking the third straight day that the S&P 500 has moved by 10 basis points or less. I can’t remember the last time that happened. That wasn’t the…...
A New Fed Chair Could Rewrite the Playbook for Markets
2+ mon, 6+ day ago (423+ words) Daily Market Analysis By Michael Kramer Speaking of the balance sheet, yesterday’s tax day pushed the Treasury General Account to roughly $980 billion, which should have reduced reserve balances to around $2.9 trillion. That is certainly not a disaster, but it does…...
Why Yen and Won Weakness Matters More Than Interest Rates
2+ mon, 1+ week ago (739+ words) Daily Market Analysis By Michael Kramer The Japanese government is not fond of USD/JPY trading above 160. We know that because whenever the exchange rate reaches that area, officials begin conducting “rate checks” or intervene directly in the market. The…...