News
Cleveland Fed Projects Highest Month-Over-Month Inflation Levels Since June 2022
2+ hour, 37+ min ago (708+ words) Inflation is directly ahead, and it will make the Fed miserable.Nowcast data from the Cleveland Fed. Actual CPI and PCE inflation numbers from the BLS. The Inflation Nowcasts are from the Cleveland Fed. Gasoline, jet fuel, diesel, aluminum, fertilizer,…...
ISM Services Down 6 Percentage Points, Employment Contracts, Prices Rise
1+ day, 5+ hour ago (731+ words) ISM Services weakens but still growing. Prices paid jumped the most in 13 years. Please consider the March 2026 Services ISM" Report, emphasis mine. What Respondents Are Saying For over a year the top concern was tariffs. Now it's the war in…...
Nonfarm Payrolls Jump by 178,000 in March, Unemployment Rate Drops
4+ day, 6+ hour ago (1737+ words) Here we go again with strong reports, major revisions, and very suspect data. Understanding the Lead Chart Before discussing the March 2026 data, it is important to understand the lead chart. Every January (typically), the BLS has annual revisions to nonfarm…...
GDPNow Forecast for First-Quarter GDP Sinks to 1.9 Percent
5+ day, 13+ hour ago (665+ words) Note: This is the change from March 31 to April 1. Another report is due today. Looking at the data, I would have expected an increase. GDPNow is a "Nowcast Estimate" not a prediction. It's a running estimate of what the BEA…...
Powell Warns the Markets and Trump that His Patience with Inflation Has Limits
1+ week, 22+ hour ago (1076+ words) Powell's speech was to Harvard students but read between the lines. The Wall Street Journal reports Powell Says Fed Can Look Past Oil Shock, but Warns Patience Has Limits "You can have a series of these supply shocks and that…...
Six Rules Suggest the Fed Should Not Be Cutting Interest Rates
2+ week, 6+ day ago (493+ words) The Cleveland Fed projects interest rates based on various rules. Please consider Simple Monetary Policy Rules by the Cleveland Fed.March 6 Data The article discusses seven rules, but I dropped the "First Difference Rule" because it blew the chart scale…...
Fed Rate Cuts Odds for July Only 10.3 Percent
9+ mon, 2+ week ago (1599+ words) In the past week, Trump called Powell a moron and asked if he should appoint himself. Ahead of the Fed's rate cut decision on Wednesday, Trump Mused About Appointing Himself to Head the Central Bank. "Maybe I should go to…...
Trump Asks the Fed for an Emergency Rate Cut. What Are the Odds?
3+ week, 4+ day ago (1903+ words) The odds are zero. But what about the rest of the year? Truth Social: Where is the Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome "Too Late" Powell, today? He should be dropping Interest Rates, IMMEDIATELY, not waiting for the next meeting! President DONALD…...
Trump’s Choice for Fed Chair Provides the Irony of the Day
3+ week, 3+ day ago (627+ words) Please consider Kevin Warsh's statements on the Fed. The Daily Economy reports Warsh: The Fed Helped Create Fiscal Dominance Federal Reserve chair nominee Kevin Warsh argues the Fed has drifted far beyond its mandate, becoming a "general-purpose agency of government....
How Much More Will Mortgage Rates Have to Drop to Spur Home Sales?
3+ mon, 2+ week ago (1839+ words) It's not that simple because one needs to factor in home prices. But we can look in isolation. Despite mortgage rates declining a full percentage point from 7.26 percent in mid-January to 6.29 percent in mid-December, existing home sales have gone virtually…...