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News
Bond Yields Surge, Gasoline Up 5 Cents, Fed Interest Rate Hike Odds Jump
1+ hour, 3+ min ago (99+ words) Hello Mr. President, still want to hand out $1.3 trillion in free bribe money? The 30-year long bond yield is the highest since Summer of 2007. Highest Since Global Financial Crisis Another day, another record diesel price. Interestingly the price of gasoline…...
Has Job Growth Accelerated or Should We Be Skeptical? What Does QCEW Suggest? – MishTalk
1+ day, 8+ hour ago (746+ words) Here are 8 charts and tables to discuss. The lead chart compares the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) to the Current Employment Statistics (CES) nonfarm payroll report. Year-Over-Year QCEW and CES Nonfarm Payrolls Through March These numbers are down…...
September Fed Rate Hike Odds Shift Dramatically Back Towards a Hike
1+ week, 2+ day ago (639+ words) It’s been a complete round trip in the last month. The September rate forecast is from CME Fedwatch. Welcome back to the reality that inflation is a problem. Two Hike Odds (September and October) That’s another round trip. But I…...
Political Realities May Force the Fed to Hike in September
1+ week, 3+ day ago (1147+ words) It will be a stretch for the Fed to pause for many reasons, not just the CPI. The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation is the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, specifically core PCE, not the CPI. However, the next…...
The BLS Annual Benchmark Revision for March 2026 Is -178,000 Private Jobs
1+ week, 5+ day ago (659+ words) The total revision was -79,000. This is the smallest benchmark revision since 2021. The BLS reports the Preliminary Benchmark Revision for March of 2026 (from March 2025) is -79,000 total jobs. Large Annual Revisions Are Over Looking ahead, I expect benchmark revisions will get smaller…...
An Economically Illiterate Trump Attempts to Explain Interest Rates
2+ week, 5+ day ago (1202+ words) “These ridiculous interest rates, they’re ridiculous. Look, when our country is strong, interest rates should go down. When our country is weak, frankly they should go up. But this country is strong. They’ve never had, there’s never been in history…...
Import and Export Prices Plunge in July on Energy Related Swing
3+ week, 1+ day ago (343+ words) The long-term charts tell a more compelling, and inflationary story. Import and Export Prices for July 2026 Please consider the BLS Import and Export Price Report for July 2026. Import and Export Prices Year-Over-Year Import and Export prices Never Returned to Normal…...
Look Ahead Inflation Numbers Do Not Support a Fed Pause in September
4+ week, 19+ hour ago (511+ words) Today’s CPI report is history. Let’s look ahead. The lead chart shows reported CPI and PCE year-over-year numbers plus the Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast. CPI and PCE Measures Plus Nowcast Pay attention to the orange lines. Core PCE, excluding food…...
July CPI Report Not as Good as Numbers Look at First Glance
4+ week, 1+ day ago (502+ words) The consumer price index rose the expected 0.1 percent, but significant troubles lie ahead. CPI Month-Over-Month The BLS reports the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in July after falling 0.4 percent in…...
Are Hourly Earnings Rising Too Slowly to Cause Inflation?
4+ week, 2+ day ago (908+ words) That’s the claim by two prominent names. I respectfully disagree. The lead chart shows the percent change in hourly earnings for production and nonsupervisory workers from the same quarter a year ago. That change is 3.53 percent. If we use percent…...