News
dialog with Gemini: would indexing have rescued most victims of 2008 subprime crisis? " Less Wrong
3+ hour, 54+ min ago (877+ words) I have been fairly certain that conversion of the sub-prime mortgages in the 2008 crisis to indexed mortgages for their remaining balances would have largely made them viable. Is this accurate? Yes, your assessment is analytically sound. Converting the remaining balances…...
Mortgage rate: 6. 5% If indexed: 1. 2% Why not indexed? Superstition. " Less Wrong
1+ week, 2+ day ago (24+ words) Of course the headline sounds preposterous; it is preposterous. But it's true, and there's no trick. People have been explaining this fervently for 2...
Lean, not backpressure " Less Wrong
2+ week, 5+ day ago (390+ words) This irked me. As I was reading, I was searching for the right analogy. I kept coming back to lean manufacturing. The more famous half of the lean philosophy is waste reduction. The other half is about managing the unstable…...
New RFP on extreme power concentration " Less Wrong
3+ week, 19+ hour ago (146+ words) Hi there, I'm an AI program officer at Longview Philanthropy, and I've just launched our request for proposals on AI-enabled concentration of power. I think this may be one of the most important and neglected problems the world faces, and…...
Hedging global oil supply shocks? " Less Wrong
1+ mon, 1+ week ago (152+ words) Real-world physical oil production and refining capacity has been destroyed in the ongoing war in Iran. This will take months or years to repair, even if the war completely and unambiguously ended tomorrow. What are some possible ways to hedge…...
Comment on "Forecasting is Way Overrated, and We Should Stop Funding It" " Less Wrong
1+ mon, 3+ week ago (549+ words) Originally posted as a'comment on'this post. Reposting for visibility and since it is lengthy enough to be a standalone post. I plan to post a more comprehensive update in future describing FRI's impact and theory of change in more detail....
Why Forecasting Fails Decision Makers " Less Wrong
1+ mon, 3+ week ago (773+ words) This post has been written in response to the Manifund Essay Prize which asks "How can we leverage forecasting into better decisions? . Who am I to make such an outlandish claims? The forecasting community has a fetish for resolution criteria....
Positive sum doesn't mean "win-win" " Less Wrong
2+ mon, 2+ week ago (394+ words) E. g. some of the claims you see when reading about positive-sum games online: A positive-sum game is'a "win-win" scenario in game theory and economics where participants collaborate to create new value, ensuring all parties can gain or benefit. [Win-win games are]…...
Is GDP a Kind of Factory? " Less Wrong
3+ mon, 2+ week ago (377+ words) This is a heavily excerpted linkpost. In 2021, economists Arvind Subramanian, Justin Sandefur, and Dev Patel announced that poor countries had finally started catching up to rich ones, vindicating the Solow growth model's prediction of "convergence." Now they say the rumors…...
Investing in light of AI risk " Less Wrong
3+ mon, 3+ week ago (1291+ words) Disclaimer 1: I am not an economist, this is my best-effort attempt to work some of this stuff out. Hopefully it at least serves as a starting point for further conversation. Disclaimer 2: I would expect that factoring in ethical considerations when…...