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News
‘Hell Freezes Over’ As Uber-Bear Edwards Says ‘Everything’s Fine’
3+ hour, 11+ min ago (641+ words) For all the concern about the hawkish read-across for monetary policy of rising energy costs, Albert Edwards suspects next year’s “big surprise” may “be rate cuts, not hikes.” Let me just say, right off the bat, that I wouldn’t be…...
Inflation Week – Heisenberg Report
1+ week, 4+ day ago (755+ words) It’s inflation week in the US, where the BLS is expected to tell American households that consumer prices as measured by the broad, all-items gauge fell slightly in June from the prior month. Consensus expects a marginal MoM decline for…...
‘Everybody’s Profiting’
1+ week, 6+ day ago (889+ words) This week began with Donald Trump ringing the opening bells of both the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ. Sort of. Flanked by small children, some of whom were visibly confused, Trump rang a golden replica chime placed atop…...
Reflation Stalls In China
2+ week, 9+ hour ago (308+ words) Maybe that’s a bit too strong, but consumer price data out Thursday certainly suggested domestic demand remains tepid, even as the war fillip kept PPI growth positive for a fourth month. As a quick reminder: The world’s second-largest economy has…...
Fed Officials Stressed Inflation Risk At Warsh’s First Meeting
2+ week, 1+ day ago (540+ words) Much to the chagrin of Donald Trump’s new Fed chair, who’d prefer it if macro conditions were more conducive to the rate cuts he swears he didn’t promise to deliver, minutes from the June FOMC meeting were riddled with references…...
Kevin’s Minutes – Heisenberg Report
2+ week, 4+ day ago (572+ words) To say the macro docket’s limited in the new week would be an understatement. In the US, there’s virtually nothing on it. Nothing other than ISM services and an update on existing home sales. The ISM print will be notable…...
The Cost Of Leverage – Heisenberg Report
2+ week, 6+ day ago (475+ words) I like to kick off articles with a question, and there’s no question I enjoy asking more than the one which asks, rhetorically, how many times I’ve mentioned something which eventually became a mainstream financial media obsession. Here’s the question:…...
US Private-Sector Hiring Cools At The Margins
3+ week, 1+ day ago (284+ words) Private-sector employers in the US added fewer jobs than economists collectively anticipated in June, Wednesday’s ADP report showed. The headline payrolls addition was 98,000, decent, but well short of the 120,000 consensus. The miss could temper expectations for Thursday’s “all-important” (every BLS…...
A Hawkish Epoch? Really?!
3+ week, 5+ day ago (600+ words) I’ve been on at considerable length since Kevin Warsh’s FOMC debut this month about the idea that a lot of market participants are exhibiting something that looks very much like naivety regarding the new chair’s commitment to putting price stability…...
America’s Spendthrifts Undeterred By Soaring Gas Prices
1+ mon, 6+ day ago (241+ words) Look out: US retail sales are comin’ in hot, goddammit! Nominal spending across the world’s largest economy easily outstripped consensus in this week’s only top-tier US macro update. A key underlying aggregate used to refine GDP forecasts was likewise robust....