News
Double Inertia, Taylor Rules, and Monetary Policy Gradualism
51+ min ago (260+ words) Edmund Crawley, William Goodwin, Margaret M. Jacobson, and Fabian Winkler In recent decades, an empirically estimated double-inertial rule fits the path of changes in the federal funds rate better than a standard inertial Taylor rule. Inertial Taylor rules aim to capture…...
Agencies remove additional references to reputation risk
2+ hour, 16+ min ago (48+ words) Regulatory and Policy Resources Banking and Data Structure For release at 11: 00 a. m. EDT The federal bank regulatory agencies today jointly updated certain interagency documents to remove references to reputation risk. The agencies continue to review their supervisory materials and may update…...
Paying More and Buying Less: 2025 Tariffs and U. S. Household Spending
4+ hour, 51+ min ago (275+ words) Sinem Hac'o'lu Hoke and Leo Feler This paper estimates the effects of the 2025 U. S. tariffs on household spending using transaction-level data linked to tariff exposure and a tariff sentiment survey. Comparing high versus low tariff-exposed categories, we find 15 to 20 percent price…...
Financial Liberalizations, Booms, and Crashes
21+ hour, 5+ min ago (405+ words) Maximilian Grimm, Moritz Schularick, and Emil Verner Financial liberalization is often seen as a way to deepen credit markets and stimulate economic growth, but it may also fuel credit booms that end in crisis. We construct a new cross-country database…...
Alternative Scenarios at the Federal Reserve from 1968 to 2020: Data, Interpretation, and Evaluation
3+ day, 23+ hour ago (245+ words) Edward Herbst, Scott Konzem, and Cristina Scofield We comprehensively document 1, 265 Federal Reserve staff alternative scenarios presented to the Federal Open Market Committee in publicly released materials from 1968 to 2020. Scenarios grew in frequency and sophistication, typically spanning a range of outcomes…...
Speech by Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman on monetary policy
4+ day, 4+ hour ago (682+ words) Regulatory and Policy Resources Banking and Data Structure Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman At the Reykjav'k Economic Conference 2026, Central Bank of Iceland, Reykjav'k, Iceland Good afternoon. I would like to thank Governor J'nsson for the invitation to take part…...
Speech by Vice Chair Jefferson on global economic developments and the U. S. economy
5+ day, 17+ hour ago (195+ words) Regulatory and Policy Resources Banking and Data Structure Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson At the 2026 Bank of Japan-Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies Conference, Tokyo, Japan Good morning. It is an honor to be here at the Bank of Japan, and…...
Speech by Governor Cook on AI, the economy, and the financial system
5+ day, 21+ hour ago (510+ words) Regulatory and Policy Resources Banking and Data Structure Governor Lisa D. Cook Economic Outlook To set the stage, I will begin with my economic outlook. Benefits to Financial System of AI I am optimistic about AI's promise to boost productivity and…...
Minutes of the Board's discount rate meeting on April 20 and 29, 2026
6+ day, 23+ hour ago (87+ words) Regulatory and Policy Resources Banking and Data Structure For release at 2: 00 p. m. EDT The Federal Reserve Board on Tuesday released the minutes from its recent meetings to review and determine the discount rates provided to depository institutions through the discount window....
The Causal Effect of Debt on Interest Rates
6+ day, 22+ hour ago (249+ words) Abhik Bhatt, Anthony M. Diercks, Benjamin Eyal, and Arsenios Skaperdas This paper uses a natural experiment to measure the causal effect of an expected debt-financed fiscal stimulus on interest rates. We find that a 1 percentage point increase in the expected US…...