1+ hour, 39+ min ago  (609+ words) From EJ Antoni (first published two weeks ago): First, 2025 was a year of transition for the economy. Under Democrat President Joe Biden, particularly his last two years in office, job growth was disproportionately due to government hiring. Similarly, government purchases…...

3+ day, 1+ hour ago  (113+ words) From Friday's breakeven (5 year Treasury-TIPS): Figure 1: 5 year Treasury-TIPS spread (blue), DKW expected inflation (tan), both in %. Red dashed line indicates CPI inflation rate consistent with 2% PCE inflation, Light green shading denotes US-Iran conflict. Source: Treasury, Fed DKW. DKW calculate expected…...

4+ day, 3+ hour ago  (166+ words) Civilian employment adjusted to NFP concept is diving (after retroactive application of 2026 population controls to January 2026 data), as are real retail sales in January. Nowcasts have been downshifted as well; GDPNow for Q1 dropped from 3.2% q/q AR yesterday to 2.1% today....

3+ week, 2+ day ago  (112+ words) The Recent Evolution of Ground Beef and Ground Coffee Prices and Tariff Rates in the U.S.Econbrowser Figure 1: Price of Ground Beef (red, left scale), of Ground Coffee (brown, right scale), in $/lb., n.s.a. Orange dashed lines at discrete increases in tariff…...

3+ week, 4+ day ago  (124+ words) GDPNow shows fast growth" However, of the 3.7% q/q AR nowcasted growth, 0.8 percentage points is accounted for by inventory accumulation. This contrasts with the 0.12 percentage points decumulation in Q3 (updated release). This observation calls for focusing on final sales. However, exports…...

3+ week, 6+ day ago  (336+ words) From today's release, +133K v +66K Bloomberg consensus on NFP: Figure 1: Reported (post-benchmark) nonfarm payroll employment (bold black), pre-benchmark NFP (gray), implied preliminary benchmark (blue), implied preliminary benchmark (red), implied Goldman Sachs (purple), CPS series adjusted to NFP concept (teal), all in…...

3+ week, 5+ day ago  (131+ words) Heritage Chief Economist Interprets Biden vs. Trump Employment Trends'Econbrowser Given sampling error, it really doesn't make sense to look at one month's m/m change in January 2025 (why not December 2024?) against one month's (preliminary) m/m change in January 2026. Here,…...

3+ week, 6+ day ago  (306+ words) I'm clearly in the minority in not being concerned about inflation from tariffs," he said on CNBC's Money Movers." But that was also true in 2018-2019, and I think I probably could take a little victory lap about that." There will…...

1+ mon, 4+ hour ago  (199+ words) If at 5pm ET, Trump Starts Posting about "Fake" Employment Numbers, Be Prepared'Econbrowser The White House receives embargoed BLS (and other) releases before the official release at 8:30am. If memory serves (and is still relevant), this is late afternoon the day before....

1+ mon, 3+ day ago  (157+ words) The Layoff Announcement-Labor Force Ratio and Recessions, 1989-2025Econbrowser Using Challenger, Gray, Christmas data at quarterly frequency, normalized by civilian labor force. Figure 1: Challenger layoff announcements to civilian labor force ratio (blue). Challenger data seasonally adjusted by author using Census X-13 (in logs)....