7+ hour, 5+ min ago  (224+ words) Econbrowser S&P Global Markets Insights monthly GDP (formerly IHS, Macroeconomic Advisers) online today. Here is monthly GDP againnst other NBER BCDC measures: Figure 1: NFP employment (bold blue), civilian employment with smoothed population controls (bold orange), industrial production (red), personal…...

1+ day, 2+ hour ago  (120+ words) Real wages down from February, Figure 1: Average hourly wage in 2025$ using headline CPI (bold black), wage earner and clerical worker CPI (red), CPI ex-shelter (blue), and Everday Price Index (green). May Everyday Price Index estmated using reported CPI and gasoline…...

2+ day, 4+ hour ago  (452+ words) In 2025, about half of observed consumption, according to Bigot and Espic (BdF): Source: Bigot and Espic (2026). The estimates rely upon work by Beach, Gamber and Moran (2025) at the Federal Reserve Board, disaggregating by income groups. Hence, in order to predict…...

4+ day, 21+ hour ago  (556+ words) That’s the title of a paper By Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan Liliana Varela that I had the opportunity to discuss at the NBER’s International Seminar on Macroeconomics (Stockholm, June 24-25). This paper, covering both industrial country and emerging market currencies (against the dollar)…...

5+ day, 6+ hour ago  (82+ words) Econbrowser From StatCan today, employment reverses May decline, rises 18.2K vs 11.2K Bloomberg consensus. The employment sitrep as of today’s release: Figure 1: Canadian employment over 15yrs (blue, left scale), Canadian nonfarm payroll employment (red, right scale), both s.a. Source: StatCan. Neither employment nor…...

1+ week, 2+ day ago  (166+ words) The dashboard refreshes automatically on the first business day of each month when the ISM PMI is released, so it provides a real-time pulse on recession risk. Note this is the risk of a recession now (well, June), not into…...

1+ week, 2+ day ago  (271+ words) From today’s Daily Commercial News, “A recession has been often defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth, and so on that definition, Canada is in a recession,” [Michael] Chong said. Who is Michael Chong? Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has…...

1+ week, 4+ day ago  (145+ words) Here’re quarterly and monthly GDP, normalized to October 2025: Figure 1: Canadian real GDP (blue bars), monthly GDP (black line), both in logs 2025M10=0. Source: StatCan, and author’s calculations. The two series diverge as the quarterly series are based on expenditure side tabulations,…...

1+ week, 6+ day ago  (271+ words) NFP underwhelms and prior months revised downward, civilian employment and civilian employment adjusted to NFP concept moving downward. At +57K on nonfarm payrolls, half of consensus (+114K), employment is still growing above breakeven (for constant unemployment rate). Civilian employment is decreasing on…...

1+ week, 6+ day ago  (92+ words) Econbrowser Given nominal wage growth in the private sector for production and nonsuperivisory workers, and nowcasted CPI, real wages are lower than in February. Figure 1: Real average hourly earnings for private production and nonsupervisory worker, using CPI (blue), CPI for…...