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Kevin Warsh’s no-guidance Fed breaks a 30-year playbook - leaving Bitcoin vulnerable to surprise rate hike
1+ hour, 7+ min ago (1212+ words) Markets still expect rates to stay unchanged, but an unusually underpriced hike could force traders to reassess the Fed’s 2026 path and test Bitcoin’s recent resilience. Bitcoin fell over the past 24 hours as traders positioned for a Federal Reserve decision that…...
Bank of Japan Decision in September Odds & Prediction Market Analysis
22+ hour, 29+ min ago (985+ words) No change is most consistent with the BoJ staying cautious after recent normalization, waiting for more wage, inflation, and growth data before moving again. Stable financial conditions and mixed readings on underlying price pressure would support a pause. A fresh…...
Bitcoin traders just stripped away crash protection - right as the Fed prepares its most unpredictable rate decision in years
22+ hour, 15+ min ago (1115+ words) Bitcoin traders have cut downside protection before the Fed's most uncertain decision in two years, leaving nearly $5 billion in upside options exposed to a sharp move in yields and the dollar. Bitcoin traders have spent the past month reducing protection…...
Bitcoin’s $65,000 rebound looks like a relief rally, but Wednesday’s Fed decision could turn it into a trap
1+ day, 22+ hour ago (1527+ words) Bitcoin traders are dropping their guard just as an oil shock puts a surprise Fed rate hike back on the table. Bitcoin reclaimed $65,000 on Monday as a pause in US-Iran strikes revived demand for risk assets ahead of a pivotal…...
Bitcoin gets $2.5B target for $72,000 by August as unknown trader bets big on Fed rally
1+ week, 1+ day ago (1024+ words) Deribit data shows more than 20,000 calls open at each strike, while July touch odds stood at 14.5% and 4.1%. Deribit’s July 31 options board shows more than 20,000 Bitcoin call contracts open at both the $70,000 and $72,000 strikes. The two strikes represent the largest call…...
Bitcoin pushes toward $65,000 on US inflation relief that may already be fading
2+ week, 14+ hour ago (1238+ words) BTC jumped after a softer CPI report, though escalating US-Iran hostilities could revive inflation and rate concerns. Bitcoin approached $65,000 on July 14 as a sharper-than-expected slowdown in US inflation weakened the case for another near-term Federal Reserve interest rate increase. Data…...
Bitcoin faces a 90-minute Fed shock as CPI and Warsh testimony collide today
2+ week, 22+ hour ago (878+ words) Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces the House Financial Services Committee 90 minutes after the June CPI release, and his interpretation of the data will carry more weight than the data. June inflation arrives at 8:30 a.m. ET today, and it should be the…...
Bitcoin’s $64K rebound has three days before its next big challenge threatens to derail momentum
2+ week, 4+ day ago (695+ words) July 14 will show whether one day of ETF inflows can outlast firm yields and restrained leverage. Bitcoin traded near $64,100 on Saturday as the clock ticked toward a key test for its rebound. June's US consumer price index is due at…...
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026 Odds & Prediction Market Analysis
2+ week, 4+ day ago (1104+ words) This outcome is favored if inflation stays sticky, labor data remain resilient, and Fed officials keep signaling patience after the 2025 easing cycle. A steady growth backdrop with no clear downside shock would leave the FOMC able to hold rates unchanged…...
Fed stress tests reveal whether banks can survive a 10% unemployment shock
1+ mon, 1+ day ago (1500+ words) A perfect stress test result sounds bullish until you realize it clears the Fed to keep financial conditions exactly where Bitcoin doesn't want them. Here's where it gets a little strange, though. For all the attention this exercise tends to…...