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News
Making it to New All-Time Highs
1+ hour, 38+ min ago (300+ words) Posted August 9, 2026 by Ben Carlson On Friday the S&P 500 closed at 7,757.64. That was a new all-time high. It was the 26th new high of 2026. By my count, there have now been almost 1,400 new closing all-time highs since 1950. That’s roughly 20 new…...
The One Wish Willow Economy
2+ day, 1+ hour ago (801+ words) Posted August 7, 2026 by Ben Carlson Obsession is one of the best movies of the decade. It’s also one of the best stories in recent film history. Writer-director Curry Barker is 26 years old. The budget for the movie was just $750k. It’s…...
Spending Money
5+ day, 3+ hour ago (1015+ words) Posted August 4, 2026 by Ben Carlson Our kids were at camp last week so my wife and I took a last minute trip to Chicago. We stayed at a nice hotel, walked around the city, did some shopping, ate some nice…...
4 Big Questions About the Economy
2+ week, 6+ day ago (680+ words) Posted July 19, 2026 by Ben Carlson Four big questions about the economy I’ve been pondering: Why don’t we have recessions anymore? The National Bureau of Economic Research has historical data on U.S. expansions and contractions going back to the 1850s: Is…...
Leverage in the Stock Market
1+ mon, 1+ week ago (717+ words) Posted June 30, 2026 by Ben Carlson Charlie Munger once said there are 3 ways for a smart person to go broke: liquor, ladies and leverage. It would seem many investors are taking the leverage theory for a test run. The South Korean…...
Why Are Investors Holding More Cash?
1+ mon, 1+ week ago (810+ words) Posted June 26, 2026 by Ben Carlson Bloomberg estimates retail demand for the SpaceX IPO was in the neighborhood of $70 billion. That’s roughly 30% of the $250 billion total, higher than the typical 5-10% reserved for retail investors. Retail investors are no longer the mom-and-pops…...
The K-Shaped Housing Market
1+ mon, 2+ week ago (759+ words) Posted June 19, 2026 by Ben Carlson Households have dealt with a lot of hurdles in the 2020s, economically-speaking. First there was the pandemic which screwed up supply chains and led to an unthinkable amount of government spending to keep people and businesses…...
How to Reduce Stock Market Stress
2+ mon, 1+ week ago (852+ words) Posted May 28, 2026 by Ben Carlson Pretty good timing on those purchases. Both Exxon and Devon Energy are up more than 300% since the end of April 2020: Markets went haywire in the spring of 2020 but oil prices going negative is one of…...
What Are Rising Interest Rates Telling Us?
2+ mon, 2+ week ago (711+ words) Posted May 22, 2026 by Ben Carlson Bond yields are rising again. This has many people worried. Here’s John Arnold’s take: The 30 year Treasury yield is at its highest level since just before the Great Financial Crisis in 2007. Japanese long-term bond yields…...
The Financial Crisis That Didn't Happen
3+ mon, 1+ week ago (883+ words) A Wealth of Common Sense Posted April 28, 2026 by Ben Carlson One of the hard parts of understanding market cycles is the fact that there are no counterfactuals. You don’t get to test the real world in a Monte Carlo simulation…...