News
A Roundtable on Trade Policy Uncertainty
2+ hour, 1+ min ago (262+ words) The discussion suggested that we have moved from a world where uncertainty centered on tariff levels to one where it increasingly concerns the rules themselves'how they are set, how they change, and whether they will be enforced consistently over time....
2025 Trade and Investment Didn’t Yield Manufacturing Jobs
4+ hour, 36+ min ago (206+ words) Trade wins'the headlines. The'combined American goods and services deficit fell only slightly in 2025, remaining large at $900 billion. But this includes a rush of imports in the first quarter in advance of expected tariffs. After the first quarter, the goods and…...
A Poisoned Chalice at the Federal Reserve
23+ hour ago (186+ words) If the experience with the bursting of the 2001 dot.com bubble is anything by which to go, the eventual bursting of the AI bubble could mean that'Warsh might have to deal with an economic recession'relatively early'in his term. Such a…...
Everything You Thought About the US Labor Market Is Wrong
2+ day, 9+ hour ago (616+ words) Markets, economists and Federal Reserve officials seem to believe that the US labour market spent most of last year weakening, that inflation is trending back to the Fed's inflation target and that the central bank will continue cutting interest rates…...
America Cut the Workers. Now It Needs the Machines
2+ week, 3+ day ago (208+ words) From the report: "The surge in immigration helped the U.S. economy to "soft land" following a period of high inflation as the economy exited the pandemic." If the US remains unfortunately serious about restricting labor supply, it must strongly embrace technologies…...
Why the Dollar Is Likely to Continue to Dominate International Trade and Finance
2+ week, 4+ day ago (410+ words) Why does the dollar dominate international trade and finance? The usual answer involves some combination of the Bretton Woods system, the size of the US economy, and deep financial markets. All true, but unsatisfying. Britain's economy was already smaller than…...
The Federal Government Booked a $1.8 Trillion Deficit Last Year
3+ week, 8+ hour ago (599+ words) President'Donald Trump's'first year of his second, nonconsecutive term brought all sorts of changes. His administration shuttered the United States Agency for International Development, had the government'acquire stakes in Nvidia'and several other corporations, and dispatched the National Guard to patrol'Washington, D.C., and…...
On the Road to Fiscal Ruin
3+ week, 1+ day ago (281+ words) In recent quarters, the issuance of Treasury bills has risen sharply to over 80 percent of the total government's bond issuance. That compares with a historic average more on the order of 21 percent. It has to be of concern that such…...
American Housing Needs More Institutional Investors
3+ week, 3+ day ago (559+ words) This op-ed was first published by Real Clear Markets. You can read the full piece'here. President Trump's'Executive Order'to ban institutional investors from purchasing single family homes gets the equation backward. The real problem in America's housing market may not be…...
Buying a House Has Become Less Affordable. A 50-Year Mortgage Is Not the Answer.
3+ week, 3+ day ago (122+ words) Buying a house has certainly become much more difficult over the last several years, but the 50-year mortgage would make a bad situation worse. Whatever savings the homebuyer might accumulate from the lower monthly payment would be far outweighed by…...