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After biggest hiring binge ever in 2020-2021, it was clear there’d be a lot of sorting out & cleaning up afterwards. Is it finally time to bottom-fish this stock? Or is it a falling knife? Big Tech is finally plowing their cash & their investors’ cash into the economy. Tax refunds make great down-payments which are gre
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News
Warsh Speaks, Treasury Yields Jump, 6-Month to 3-Year Treasury Yields Spike
2+ week, 1+ day ago (472+ words) Banks California Canada CRE, the Epic Mess Credit Bubble Debtor Nation Drunken Sailors Europe Federal Reserve Housing Bubble 2 Inflation & Devaluation Japan Jobs Markets & Companies Oil, Gas, Power Trucks & Cars Trade & Transportation So forward guidance is dead. Markets have to figure…...
How Americans Spent their Trillions of Inflation-Adjusted Dollars on Goods & Services and How that Changed since 2015
2+ week, 3+ day ago (644+ words) Banks California Canada CRE, the Epic Mess Credit Bubble Debtor Nation Drunken Sailors Europe Federal Reserve Housing Bubble 2 Inflation & Devaluation Japan Jobs Markets & Companies Oil, Gas, Power Trucks & Cars Trade & Transportation Of the total amount spent, 66% got spent on services;…...
Long-Term Treasury Yields Surge, Wipe Out Effect of Bessent???s Hocus-Pocus Treasury Buybacks in 2 Days. Bond Market Not to Be Played With
3+ week, 1+ day ago (748+ words) Banks California Canada CRE, the Epic Mess Credit Bubble Debtor Nation Drunken Sailors Europe Federal Reserve Housing Bubble 2 Inflation & Devaluation Japan Jobs Markets & Companies Oil, Gas, Power Trucks & Cars Trade & Transportation This time, the hocus-pocus show worked for only one…...
CPI Dragged Down by Energy, Hotels & Motels (Shelter), Auto Insurance, and Meat (Finally)
1+ mon, 14+ hour ago (813+ words) The all-items CPI (which includes food and energy) barely inched up (+0.07%) in July from June, after the negative reading in the prior month. The “core” CPI (excludes food and energy) rose by only 0.22%, after a negative reading in the prior…...
Inflation in the Overall Economy, Hitting Consumers, Businesses, and Governments, Was Really Bad in Q2, even without Energy
1+ mon, 1+ week ago (606+ words) Overall inflation in GDP (“GDP deflator”), which tracks inflation in the entire economy, soared by 6.3% in Q2 from Q1 annualized, the worst since Q2 2022 (blue line in the chart below). Year-over-year, GDP inflation jumped by 4.3%, the worst since Q1 2023 (red line). So sure, energy…...
Red-Hot Inflation & (Inflation-Adjusted) Strong Domestic Private-Sector Demand Marks Q2 GDP. Debt-to-GDP Ratio Dips to 121.5%
1+ mon, 1+ week ago (858+ words) 1. Red-hot inflation. The GDP deflator, which tracks inflation in the entire economy (consumers, businesses, and governments) soared by 6.3% in Q2 annualized. Not adjusted for this red-hot inflation, “current dollar GDP” jumped by 7.9%. But adjusted for inflation, “real GDP” rose by only…...
Stocks Tank, Long-Term Treasury Yields Jump after Warsh Starts Talking
1+ mon, 2+ week ago (1118+ words) Between 2:55 p.m., halfway through Fed Chair Warsh’s press conference today, and the close of the market, in those 65 minutes, the S&P 500 fell 138 points, or by 1.85%. That was a fast reversal from green to deep red. For the day overall, the…...
Fed Holds Rates after “Good Family Fight” and 3 Dissenters, after Enormous Uncertainty in the Markets
1+ mon, 2+ week ago (1741+ words) The FOMC kept its five policy rates unchanged in the range of 3.50% to 3.75% after “a good family fight,” as Warsh has called the process repeatedly since becoming Chair. Some of the disagreements spilled out into the open with 3 dissenters – Beth…...
Bond Market Just Flipped to “Rate Hike in July” as 2-Month Treasury Yield Spiked by 13 Basis Points
1+ mon, 2+ week ago (544+ words) So would a “surprise rate hike” at the July meeting still be a surprise when the bond market prices it in a week in advance? Buyers of securities that mature in about two months today demanded to be paid for…...
Mortgage Rates Rise to 6.77%, Highest in a Year, Driven by Bond Market Fears of Inflation & the Ballooning Debt
1+ mon, 3+ week ago (781+ words) The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 6.77% today, the highest in a year, and a hair above the highs earlier in July and May, and up by nearly 80 basis points from the February low, per the daily measure by…...