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News
Globex is open and oil has jumped higher while stocks have slumped.
1+ hour, 27+ min ago (359+ words) --- The week has opened with oil bid on unresolved Middle East risk and stocks on the back foot after OpenAI's IPO retreat added to AI sector caution. Oil gapped higher and equity index futures gapped lower as Globex opened for…...
ECB chief Lagarde says euro-area inflation shock will last longer than expected
2+ hour, 40+ min ago (234+ words) Lagarde says the inflation shock from the Iran war has further to run, while separately warning that sky-high AI valuations could be due a correction. European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde said the current inflation shock facing the euro area…...
JPMorgan now sees the Fed hiking in September and December
2+ day, 5+ hour ago (195+ words) The market is already priced at 86% so they're late to the party on this one. Might as well also put out a forecast for Spain to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup. In any case, all that's at stake now is…...
The oil market is suddenly a huge problem
3+ day, 5+ hour ago (270+ words) The good news for Trump is that if he doesn't want the Federal Reserve to hike rates twice before year end, he has the tools to stop it. Today, we're seeing signs of a scramble to secure supplies with brent…...
PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.7174 – Reuters estimate
2+ day, 23+ hour ago (276+ words) The daily fixing is Beijing's quietest but clearest tool for telling markets how fast it wants the yuan to move, and lately the message has been to slow down. The People's Bank of China sets the daily USD/CNY reference…...
Coming up: What Lagarde may say next, two days after the ECB's rate rise
2+ day, 22+ hour ago (264+ words) Her prior comments linking Middle East-driven oil prices above $100 a barrel to inflation risk are the more market-relevant thread to watch for repetition, since any escalation in that language would sit alongside the broader energy-driven inflation story already playing out…...
PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.7743 (vs. estimate at 6.7174)
2+ day, 18+ hour ago (122+ words) The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here on this. Tesla's Cybercab touts 50% cheaper rides than Uber, yet sometimes costs double—traders weigh the pricing risk. S&P 500 slips below 50-day as…...
Surging oil prices and sinking bonds have decided the Fed need to hike
3+ day, 10+ hour ago (370+ words) The US dollar is sizzling today as the market senses that the Fed will have no other choice but to hike rates. Oil is up for the eigth consecutive day and the gains are accelerating. WTI is up $4.25 on the…...
ECB's Lagarde: The economy is proving resilient
3+ day, 10+ hour ago (107+ words) The 'no brainer' line and some other comments were surprisingly hawkish. OpenAI swaps $1/year federal pilot for usage-based pricing, offering 50% discount to agencies. Starbucks' Niccol wins back customers, now bets $1B on store upgrades to fatten margins. August home sales drop…...
Oil prices above $100 continue to lift bond yields as inflation fears grow
3+ day, 11+ hour ago (454+ words) Oil prices and bond yields continue to push higher in European trading today, offering a timely reminder to broader markets that inflation risks remain very much in focus. Brent crude is up over 1% to above $102, while WTI crude now up…...