4+ day, 12+ hour ago   (72+ words) Econbrowser That’s former CEA Chair Miran’s argument in the FT. Is this assertion empirically validated? A graph from Hamilton, Harris, Hatzius and West (2016) suggests, maybe not: Source: Hamilton et al. (2016) exhibit 3.3, as edited by Chinn. The real rate-growth rate link…...

2+ week, 4+ day ago   (150+ words) Nominal consumption beats expectations ( +0.2% m/m vs +0.1% Bbg consensus), but real personal income ex-transfers remains below recent peak. The fact that consumption is flat in July is notable given rising personal income ex transfers. The SP500 was also (perhaps not coincidentally)…...

3+ week, 1+ day ago   (116+ words) Econbrowser SPGMI’s estimate as of 8/3: Figure 1: NFP employment (bold blue), civilian employment with smoothed population controls (bold orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold light green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), and monthly…...

3+ week, 3+ day ago   (78+ words) Econbrowser They’re all lower than they were in February … but deflated using CPI ex shelter (mimicking HICP), they’re down 1.4%. Figure 1: Average hourly earnings for production and nonsupervisory workers deflated by CPI – all urban (black), CPI wage earners and clerical workers…...

3+ week, 4+ day ago   (195+ words) Not just for computers, peripherals and semiconductors – and running hot despite dollar appreciation. From MarketPlace, with Justin Ho, today: without the cost of energy, import prices rose. In fact, they were up 4.5% from the same time a year ago. It’s…...

3+ week, 5+ day ago   (262+ words) Econbrowser Industrial production below consensus (+0.2% m/m vs. +0.3% Bloomberg), manufacturing at consensus, although previous month’s revised up. Output measures continue to outpace employment. Figure 1: NFP employment (bold blue), civilian employment with smoothed population controls (bold orange), industrial production (red), personal…...