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CEA Chair Miran asserts that some of the surprise in the employment numbers is due issues of seasonality. Can we see that? I can’t… As of 1:35PM CT today, the President has fired the Commissioner of Labor Statistics, within 6 hours of the latest employment release. So what all of feared about the safety of the independ
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News
Ten Year Rates Up
3+ day, 14+ hour ago (26+ words) Econbrowser Figure 1: Ten year constant maturity Treasury (blue), on the run (red), both %. Source: Treasury, tradingeconomics.com. Leave a Reply Cancel reply...
High Real Interest Rates Because of Incipient Rapid Growth?
4+ day, 9+ hour ago (72+ words) Econbrowser That’s former CEA Chair Miran’s argument in the FT. Is this assertion empirically validated? A graph from Hamilton, Harris, Hatzius and West (2016) suggests, maybe not: Source: Hamilton et al. (2016) exhibit 3.3, as edited by Chinn. The real rate-growth rate link…...
Business Cycle Indicators: Real Consumption Is Flat
2+ week, 4+ day ago (150+ words) Nominal consumption beats expectations ( +0.2% m/m vs +0.1% Bbg consensus), but real personal income ex-transfers remains below recent peak. The fact that consumption is flat in July is notable given rising personal income ex transfers. The SP500 was also (perhaps not coincidentally)…...
Wisconsin Goods Exports by Destination, 2025
2+ week, 6+ day ago (58+ words) Econbrowser As we lumber into an expanded trade war with Canada: Source: Census via ITA, and author’s calculations. To date (1pm CT), gubernatorial candidate Tom Tiffany has not made a comment on the original Section 338 tariffs to be levied against Canada,…...
Inflation Adjusted Average Hourly Earnings below February 2026 Levels
3+ week, 3+ day ago (78+ words) Econbrowser They’re all lower than they were in February … but deflated using CPI ex shelter (mimicking HICP), they’re down 1.4%. Figure 1: Average hourly earnings for production and nonsupervisory workers deflated by CPI – all urban (black), CPI wage earners and clerical workers…...
???I am the king of debt. I do love debt. I love debt.???
3+ week, 3+ day ago (245+ words) “I am the king of debt. I do love debt. I love debt.” Econbrowser That is Donald J. Trump, in May 2016. So why the surprise about debt worries? It was only a question of time. Figure 1: Debt held by public…...
Import Prices Running Hot
3+ week, 4+ day ago (195+ words) Not just for computers, peripherals and semiconductors – and running hot despite dollar appreciation. From MarketPlace, with Justin Ho, today: without the cost of energy, import prices rose. In fact, they were up 4.5% from the same time a year ago. It’s…...