Specialized search for economics

5+ min ago (717+ words) China's annual trade surplus exceeded $1 trillion for the first time despite a deepening plunge in shipments to the U.S., risking a backlash from markets flooded by goods from the world's biggest manufacturing nation. Exports returned to growth in November after an unexpected drop the previous month, rising 5.9% from a year earlier and far outpacing a 1.9% gain in imports, according to data published by China's General Administration of Customs on Dec. 8. The November surplus came in at $112 billion, the third largest ever accumulated by China in a single month and far more than forecast by economists. The display of export dominance is stirring waves of resentment abroad. French President Emmanuel Macron, who visited China last week, has warned the EU may take "strong measures," including by imposing tariffs, should Beijing fail to address the imbalance." "If the EU indeed does follow suit…...

9+ min ago (335+ words) The fallout from President Donald Trump's trade war may hit consumers in a much bigger way at the start of next year, according to economists and major retailers. Retailers have been able to shield consumers from the president's steep tariffs for longer than many economists expected, but business executives and corporate analysts are running low on inventory they stocked up on before those duties kicked in " which could result in price increases as soon as this month, reported Politico. "In the first half of next year, we are concerned that consumers are going to start to see the price increases become a little more broad-based, and there may not be all the [holiday sales] promotion to help clear through some of that," said Joseph Feldman, a senior managing director at Telsey Advisory Group. "So that could be a little bit…...

12+ min ago (342+ words) Similarly, the Current Situation sub-index also improved to -16.5 in December, from November's -17.5. The Expectations gauge rises sharply to 4.8 in the same period from 3.3 in November. EUR/USD remains steady around 1.1660 as of writing, despite upbeat Eurozone's sentiment data. The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the British Pound. Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis. EUR/USD posts modest gains above 1.1650 in the European session on Monday. The prospect of a US'Federal Reserve'rate cut at its December meeting on Wednesday keeps the US Dollar undermined across the board, supporting the pair amid strong German Industrial Production data. Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence data is next in focus.' GBP…...

13+ min ago (190+ words) Stock futures were pointing to further gains on Monday, with investors still confident that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates on Wednesday, but a little unsure about what the central bank will do next. Futures tracking the Dow Jones Industrial Average were down 6 points, effectively tradi Stock futures were pointing to further gains on Monday, with investors still confident that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates on Wednesday, but a little unsure about what the central bank will do next. Futures tracking the Dow Jones Industrial Average were down 6 points, effectively trading flat. S&P 500 futures climbed 0.2%, with the benchmark index on the brink of setting a new closing high, while contracts tied to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 added 0.3%. The biggest story for markets this week is likely to be the Federal Open Market Committee's monetary policy decision on…...

13+ min ago (175+ words) U.S. Treasury yields rise in midday European trade as investors turn cautious about prospects for U.S. interest-rate cuts, even as the Federal Reserve is widely expected to reduce rates on Wednesday. The 30-year Treasury yield rises to a three-month high of 4.811%, LSEG data show. Money markets pri U.S. Treasury yields rise in midday European trade as investors turn cautious about prospects for U.S. interest-rate cuts, even as the Federal Reserve is widely expected to reduce rates on Wednesday. The 30-year Treasury yield rises to a three-month high of 4.811%, LSEG data show. Money markets price a 86% probability of a 25-basis point rate cut this week, according to LSEG, but investors are concerned that the Fed could be cautious about the outlook. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's accompanying comments could affect sentiment, Naga's Frank Walbaum says in a note. The two-year Tresaury yield rises 1.1 basis points to…...

13+ min ago (194+ words) Stock futures were pointing to further gains on Monday, with investors still confident that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates on Wednesday, but a little unsure about what the central bank will do next. Futures tracking the Dow Jones Industrial Average were up 6 points, effectively trading Updated 51 min ago Stock futures were pointing to further gains on Monday, with investors still confident that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates on Wednesday, but a little unsure about what the central bank will do next. Futures tracking the Dow Jones Industrial Average were up 6 points, effectively trading flat. S&P 500 futures climbed 0.1%, with the benchmark index on the brink of setting a new closing high, while contracts tied to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 added 0.2%. The biggest story for markets this week is likely to be the Federal Open Market Committee's monetary…...

13+ min ago (175+ words) U.S. Treasury yields rise in midday European trade as investors turn cautious about prospects for U.S. interest-rate cuts, even as the Federal Reserve is widely expected to reduce rates on Wednesday. The 30-year Treasury yield rises to a three-month high of 4.811%, LSEG data show. Money markets pri U.S. Treasury yields rise in midday European trade as investors turn cautious about prospects for U.S. interest-rate cuts, even as the Federal Reserve is widely expected to reduce rates on Wednesday. The 30-year Treasury yield rises to a three-month high of 4.811%, LSEG data show. Money markets price a 86% probability of a 25-basis point rate cut this week, according to LSEG, but investors are concerned that the Fed could be cautious about the outlook. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's accompanying comments could affect sentiment, Naga's Frank Walbaum says in a note. The two-year Tresaury yield rises 1.1 basis points to…...

15+ min ago (464+ words) Isabel Schnabel's remarks on upside growth risks'spanning consumption, investment, and government spending'boosted the Euro (EUR) in early trade. With markets now pricing the next ECB move as a hike, EUR/USD holds a 1.1630-1.1680 range with scope for 1.1700-1.1730 before the Fed meeting, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes. "Whisper it, but we have a key ECB official suggesting that eurozone growth risks could be to the upside. The ECB's Isabel Schnabel made these remarks in an interview released this morning, citing that upside surprises could come from three directions: household consumption, private sector investment and government outlays on infrastructure and defense." "These remarks probably need to be seen in the context of her hawkish background and perhaps as a foil to those at the ECB still favoring one last rate cut. But Schnabel has suggested the ECB could revise up its…...

16+ min ago (245+ words) EUR/USD posts modest gains above 1.1650 in the European session on Monday. The prospect of a US'Federal Reserve'rate cut at its December meeting on Wednesday keeps the US Dollar undermined across the board, supporting the pair amid strong German Industrial Production data. Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence data is next in focus.' GBP/USD kicks off the new week on a subdued note and oscillates in a narrow trading band above 1.3300 in European trading on Monday. The pair, however, remains close to the highest level since October 22,'with bulls awaiting a sustained strength on a potential dovish Fed verdict due later this Wednesday.' Gold'sticks to its modest intraday gains through the early European session, though it lacks bullish conviction and remains confined in a one-week-old trading range. The growing acceptance that the US'Federal Reserve'will lower borrowing costs again'this week'keeps the US…...

30+ min ago (400+ words) European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member and Finnish central bank governor, Olli Rehn, said in an interview with Econostream during the European trading session on Monday that downside risks to inflation in the Eurozone economy are dominating at the moment. Sticking to full optionality on rates, full freedom of action and moving forward meeting by meeting.Downside inflation risks dominate slightly at the moment, but upside risks are also present.Rejected pre-emptive easing on the base of insurance.Inflation expectations are well anchored around 2% target.Loss of Fed independence would have consequences for ECB policy too. EUR/USD remains sideways near 1.1660 as of writing after ECB Rehn's comments amid absence of any cues about the direction on the interest rate outlook. Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce…...