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News
Fed's Barkin: We are in a zero-to-modest gain jobs environment
19+ hour, 9+ min ago (132+ words) This is the kind of talk we heard earlier this year, then it faded for awhile when jobs were around 100k per month. US oil rig count holds steady at 588. Permian activity up, but Canada rigs dip 3. Watch for supply shifts....
New York Fed survey: One year inflation expectations dip to 3.6% from 3.7%
18+ hour, 45+ min ago (109+ words) No big surprises in this one. Whatnot hits $20B valuation on live shopping boom. Investors bet big on its retail tech growth. US jobs unexpectedly fell in July, but unemployment dipped. Watch for hiring slowdowns. CELH jumps on Rockstar founder's stake…...
Canada July employment change +75.1K vs +15K expected
15+ hour, 59+ min ago (145+ words) Despite the stronger hiring, wage pressures continued to moderate. Average hourly earnings rose 2.8% from a year earlier, slowing from 3.3% growth in June, indicating that while Canada's labour market remains resilient, wage inflation is easing. SpaceX stock jumps as unlock doubles…...
US dollar sinks on shock contraction in jobs
20+ hour, 44+ min ago (432+ words) The US non-farm payrolls report pointed to an economy significantly worse than believed. The data showed the economy shedding 23K jobs in July, far worse than +80K expected and below any estimates in the survey of economists. Worse yet, the prior two…...
US July non-farm payrolls -23K vs +80K expected
21+ hour, 1+ min ago (361+ words) Ahead of the data, USD/JPY was trading at 158.33 and Fed funds futures were pricing in a 57% chance of a rate hike in September. USD/JPY is quickly down to 157.13 and rate hike odds are at 44%. Compounding the decline in…...
What is the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP?
1+ day, 1+ hour ago (276+ words) The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market's reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we…...
EUR/USD stalls at a key trendline ahead of the US NFP and CPI reports. What's next?
19+ hour, 9+ min ago (623+ words) The US dollar weakened across the board this week following de-escalation in the Middle East and increased hopes for a US-Iran deal. The bearish momentum waned though probably because the anticipated timeline for the deal passed without an announcement. Nevertheless,…...
All eyes on the US jobs report now
23+ hour, 45+ min ago (540+ words) The non-farm payrolls release is the only game in town for markets today, with little else to distract from it. US-Iran developments remain uncertain, awaiting the Strait of Hormuz arrangement between Iran and Oman. Meanwhile, the returning pressure on tech…...
Trump says a rate hike isn't completely up to Warsh, it's up to the Board
1+ day, 12+ min ago (307+ words) Speaking in an interview with Punchbowl News, Trump said a potential rate hike is "not completely up to Warsh" adding that the Fed chair "has a board that's very political" and stressing that the decision ultimately rests with the broader…...
Gold stays supported amid Middle East de-escalation, but the US CPI could erase the gains
1+ day, 1+ hour ago (414+ words) Gold continues to extend gains as the de-escalation in the Middle East and the hopes for a US-Iran deal reduced inflation and Fed tightening risks. Barring another escalation, the upside should remain supported. The next test will come next week…...